Poker Knowing When To Fold

Zachary Elwood
  1. Poker Knowing When To Fold
  2. Poker Knowing When To Fold Lyrics
  3. Poker Knowing When To Fold Meaning
  4. Fold Poker Definition

It's World Series of Poker time, so in this article we'll look at five hands from past WSOPs where postflop bettors gave off some pretty reliable indicators of having strong hands.

Knowing When to Fold ‘Em. 2000, I did what I hadn’t been able to do for two years: I won a poker tournament. While a year or two drought happens to all the best players in the world, it’s always nice when the dry spell is over. If I were to fold, then I would still be in second place in chips and still have an excellent chance to. You’ll see so many fishy players calling off a huge chunk of chips preflop only to fold the flop when they miss. Of course nothing here is concrete when it comes to knowing when to fold and make a big laydown. But in poker, you must be able to fold big hands, period. And good poker players know this!

When it comes to players making significant postflop bets, most reliable reads you'll get will be those indicating a strong hand. It's pretty uncommon to get a confident read that a player making a big bet is bluffing.

This makes a lot of sense when you consider the following:

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  • Players making big bets will be generally stoic and hard-to-read. That's just how most players strive to act in such spots. Because of this, it's generally hard to distinguish the stoicism of a bluffer from the standard, normal stoicism. You could say that most anxious behavior from bluffers is 'camouflaged.'
  • Relaxed players, though, sometimes do unusual things, either out of trying to be tricky or because they're just so relaxed and enjoying themselves. And these out-of-the-ordinary things can give away that they're relaxed.

Keep in mind the behaviors examined in the hands below are mainly meaningful in the context of decent-sized postflop bets. Such actions can have very different meanings, or no meaning at all, in other situations.

Chip-flipping and uncertain, thoughtful behavior

This is a hand from the heads-up finale of the 2011 WSOP Main Event. In the clip, you'll see Martin Staszko raising the turn. He had for a full house. There are a couple of interesting behaviors here that are likely to indicate strength:

  • the hesitating, uncertain behavior before his raise
  • the flipping of his chip before his raise

Watching live, with no hole cards, when I saw these behaviors I was very confident Staszko had a strong hand. Let's look a little more closely at both of them.

Bet hesitation/uncertainty

I am god clams casino instrumental download. After Pius Heinz bets the turn, Staszko waits 25 seconds, then starts gathering chips. He pulls over enough for a call, so it looks like he's preparing to call. Then he pauses, looking back at Heinz several times, as if thinking. Then he starts to gather chips again, pulling over more chips from his off-to-the-side stacks. He finally raises.

Bluffers like to convey confidence and certainty. For this reason, they're unlikely to have excessive pauses, hesitations, or uncertain-seeming behaviors in their betting or raising. In this case, if Staszko were bluffing, he wouldn't want to make Heinz potentially suspicious by looking like he was going to call and then changed his mind. Staszko's behavior here makes it likely he's relaxed, mainly because this would be unusual behavior from a bluffer.

Chip flipping

Flipping a chip end over end is loose and playful behavior. When associated with a bet, it's a generally reliable sign of relaxation, much more so than the more common chip riffling. In this match, Staszko had been very stoic. Because he was generally so behaviorally restrained, his chip flipping here, followed by a raise, made it likely this was a subtle but reliable leak of relaxation with a strong hand.

Heinz ended up floating this turn raise with — just seven-high, no draw.

Weak-hand statement, eye-contact, genuine smiling

This is a hand from the 2008 WSOP Main Event. There are three meaningful behaviors here from Gaetano Buda likely to indicate strength:

  • saying he doesn't have (the high straight)
  • making a good amount of eye contact with opponent
  • a genuine smile

Again, let's look at these behaviors:

A weak-hand statement

Bluffers do not like to weaken their range. When Buda removes a strong hand () from his range, it makes it very likely he is relaxed, with a strong hand. (For more on weak-hand statements, see this article examining William Kassouf's verbal tells in the 2016 WSOP Main Event.)

Eye-contact

Poker Knowing When To Fold

While bettor eye-contact tells can vary a good amount, most amateur players will make more eye contact when betting strong hands and less eye contact when bluffing. Loose, back-and-forth eye contact (as Buda shows here) makes it even more likely that a player is relaxed.

Genuine smile

Smiles are subjective and can be hard to read, especially small or tight smiles. But if you perceive a bettor's smile as deep or genuine, it can make a strong hand a lot more likely. Here, Buda's smile seems quite relaxed and loose, and not at all pasted on, tight or uncomfortable.

Poker Knowing When To Fold

Antonius folded to this bet.

Standing up after a bet

This hand comes from the 2007 WSOP Main Event. There are actually two interesting behaviors from Philip Hilm in this clip:

  • standing up after betting
  • an uncertain, nervous demeanor

Standing up after a shove

In a study I did of post-bet standing up in the WSOP, almost all cases of postflop standing after betting happened with a strong hand. It's an indicator of relaxation. In addition to standing, Hilm walked around. Walking is even more an indicator of relaxation than standing is.

Uncertain-seeming behavior

Hilm acted nervous after his shove. When Scotty Nguyen told him to stop counting his chips, Hilm awkwardly pulled away and continued fidgeting. The announcers noticed this demeanor of Hilm's. 'Hilm actually acting as if he's uneasy,' comments Norman Chad, who then adds 'Hilm continuing with his little act, as if 'Whew, I'm sweating this out.' If Hilm were bluffing, he would likely want to convey normalcy and confidence. Above all, bluffers want to be seen as normal; they don't want to be seen as potentially nervous.

Poker Knowing When To Fold Lyrics

Nguyen folded to this shove.

Exuberant behavior and loose smiles

During the 2006 WSOP Main Event, Jamie Gold was very talkative and tricky. Many people focused on Gold's table talk, trying to figure out if he was lying or telling the truth about his hands.

But the much more important aspects of his behavior were these:

  • How exuberant and playful did he seem?
  • How talkative was he?
  • How genuine-seeming was his smile?

In the first hand in the clip above, you can see Gold being very exuberant, playful and smiley when betting the set. Then in the second hand when bluffing, he's much more terse, subdued and even agitated-seeming. This was a common pattern for Gold. Even though he was capable of talking, and talking in tricky ways, in many spots the quality of his talking and his overall demeanor were often quite imbalanced in this way.

For a more in-depth examination of Gold's behavior, see this YouTube video of mine.

Double-checking hole cards before a bet

The clips above are from the 2015 WSOP Main Event. The interesting behavior here is Pierre Neuville double-checking his hole cards right before betting.

Double-checking cards can theoretically be interpreted as genuine uncertainty about one's hole cards. For someone with a strong hand, one might think on a superficial level the player wouldn't need to recheck the hole cards. Meanwhile a bluffer has a general instinctual understanding that this could be one interpretation and so is unlikely to double-check hole cards right before bluffing. A bluffer doesn't want to convey accidentally any uncertainty about what he or she has. This means that most double-checking of hole cards before a large postflop bet is done by players betting strong hands.

A couple notes about this behavior:

  • As with all poker tells, the situation matters. We are talking here about double-checking hole cards right before a significant postflop bet. Double-checking hole cards in other situations may have other meanings or no meaning.
  • As with a lot of strong-hand tells, this behavior doesn't necessarily have to indicate a super-strong hand to fit the pattern. Many strong-hand tells just make bluffs less likely. As in the second hand in the clip above, Neuville had top pair, which was far from the nuts. The main point here is that he'd be unlikely to double-check here if he was betting complete air.

Zachary Elwood has a new book, Exploiting Poker Tells, available in ebook format on his site and in paperback on Amazon. He also has a poker tells video series.

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    WSOPWorld Series of PokerMartin StaszkoPius HeinzPatrik AntoniusScotty NguyenJamie GoldPierre Neuvilletellstable talkpostflop strategyvalue bettingbluffing
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    Jamie GoldScotty NguyenPatrik AntoniusPierre NeuvilleMartin StaszkoPius Heinz
'The Gambler'
Single by Kenny Rogers
from the album The Gambler
B-side'Momma's Waiting'
ReleasedNovember 15, 1978
FormatVinyl
GenreCountry
Length3:34
LabelUnited Artists
Songwriter(s)Don Schlitz
Producer(s)Larry Butler
Kenny Rogers singles chronology
'Anyone Who Isn't Me Tonight'
(1978)
'The Gambler'
(1978)
'All I Ever Need Is You'
(1979)

'The Gambler' is a song written by Don Schlitz, recorded by several artists, most famously by American country music singer Kenny Rogers.

Don Schlitz wrote this song in August, 1976 when he was 23 years old. It took two years of shopping the song around Nashville before Bobby Bare recorded it on his album 'Bare' at the urging of Shel Silverstein. Bare's version did not catch on and was never released as a single, so Schlitz recorded it himself, but this version failed to chart higher than No. 65. However, other musicians took notice and recorded the song in 1978, including Johnny Cash, who put it on his album Gone Girl. However, it was Kenny Rogers who made the song a mainstream success. His version was a No. 1 Country hit and made its way to the Pop charts at a time when Country songs rarely crossed over. It was released in November 1978 as the title track from his album The Gambler which won him the Grammy award for best male country vocal performance in 1980.[1] In 2006 Don Schlitz appeared in the Kenny Rogers career retrospective documentary 'The Journey', where he praised both Rogers' and Butler's contributions to the song stating 'they added several ideas that were not mine, including the new guitar intro'.

It was one of five consecutive songs by Rogers to hit No. 1 on the Billboard country music charts.[2] On the pop chart, the song made it No. 16 and No. 3 on the Easy Listening chart.[3] It's become one of Rogers's most enduring hits and a signature song. As of November 13, 2013, the digital sales of the single stood at 798,000 copies.[4] In 2018, it was selected for preservation in the National Recording Registry by the Library of Congress as being 'culturally, historically, or artistically significant.'[5]

  • 2Chart performance

Content[edit]

The song itself tells the story of a late-night meeting on a train 'bound for nowhere' between the narrator and a man known only as the gambler. The gambler tells the narrator that he can tell he is down on his luck ('out of aces') by the look in his eyes and offers him advice in exchange for his last swallow of whisky. After the gambler takes the drink (and a cigarette), he gives the following advice:

You've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,

Know when to walk away, know when to run.
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table,
There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.

The gambler then mentions that the 'secret to survivin' is knowing what to throw away, and knowing what to keep' and that 'the best you can hope for is to die in your sleep'. At this point, the gambler puts out the cigarette and goes to sleep.

At the end of the song we are told that 'somewhere in the darkness, the gambler, he broke even', and that the narrator finds 'an ace that I could keep', in his final words. Rogers' rendition in an appearance on The Muppet Show indicates the gambler actually dies in his sleep when he 'broke even', thus really making those his 'final words' ever spoken.

Chart performance[edit]

Weekly charts[edit]

Chart (1978–79)Peak
position
Australia KMR[6]25
Canada Adult Contemporary Tracks (RPM)6
Canada Country Tracks (RPM)2
Canada Top Singles (RPM)8
New Zealand (Recorded Music NZ)[7]29
Spain (AFYVE)[8]12
UK Singles (The Official Charts Company)[9]22
US Hot Country Songs (Billboard)[10]1
US Billboard Hot 100[11]16
US Adult Contemporary (Billboard)[12]3
US Cash Box Top 100[13]13

Year-end charts[edit]

Chart (1979)Rank
Canada Top Singles (RPM) [14]65
US Billboard Hot 100 [15]40
US Cash Box[16]94

Cover versions[edit]

  • Alvin and the Chipmunks on their album Urban Chipmunk. (1981)
  • Johnny Cash on Gone Girl (1978)
  • Blake Shelton on Cracker Barrel: Songs of the Year Concert (2007)
  • Brian Posehn with Jamey Jasta on Fart and Wiener Jokes (2010)
  • Outlaw (Terry Pugh) on Old Friends (2012) Joey Sontz on 'Chasing The Dream' (2012)
  • The R Team on The Gambler (Single) (2017)

In popular culture[edit]

  • In 1979, when Rogers guest-starred in a season 4 episode of The Muppet Show, he performed this song with a Muppet character. Rogers is shown seated on a train with three muppets, one of them The Gambler (portrayed by Jerry Nelson). Rogers sings the opening verse, while Nelson sings most of 'The Gambler's' dialog, then falls asleep just as Rogers concludes the song's story. After he dies, The Gambler's spirit rises from his Muppet body, singing backup and dances to the song's last two choruses, and lets a deck of cards fly from his hand before fading away.
  • The USFL team Houston Gamblers was named after this song. Kenny Rogers was born and raised in Houston, Texas.
  • A caricature parody of Kenny Rogers singing the song appeared in the 1993 Pinky and the Brain short 'Bubba Bo Bob Brain' (season 1, episode 34). The lyrics to this version were changed to refer to Go Fish: 'You gotta know how to cut 'em, know how to shuffle, know how to deal the cards before you play fish with me.'
  • The song was used in the movie George of the Jungle 2 while playing a card game.
  • In a 1996 episode of the sitcom NewsRadio, Matthew (Andy Dick) comically misquotes the chorus of the song. (season 2 episode 13, 'In Through The Out Door')
  • On an episode of Monday Night Raw on November 12, 2001 at The Fleet Center in Boston, Massachusetts, wrestler The Rock sang the chorus to the then heel character of Stone Cold Steve Austin in a sing off after Austin sang 'Delta Dawn' off key to jeers, The Rock sang the chorus of 'The Gambler' to cheers.
  • The song became a dressing room anthem for the England players in the 2007 Rugby World Cup, which led to it becoming a pop UK top 40 hit.
  • On May 10, 2007, the cast of The Office sings the chorus of the song on the bus in the episode, 'Beach Games.'
  • On July 21, 2009, the song was released for the music game Rock Band as a playable track as part of the 'Rock Band Country Track Pack' compilation disc. It was then made available via digital download on Dec 29, 2009.
  • A 2014 Geico television commercial features Rogers singing part of the song a cappella during a card game, to the displeasure of the other players.
  • The song was ranked number 18 out of the top 76 songs of the 1970s by Internet radio station WDDF Radio in their 2016 countdown.[17]
  • The song plays during a montage scene in an episode of Supernatural titled 'Weekend at Bobby's' and in another episode titled 'Inside Man'.
  • The song was played during a 2019 MLB World Series commercial showing Houston Astros players playing poker.

References[edit]

Poker Knowing When To Fold Meaning

  1. ^Reader's digest almanac and yearbook, 1981, p. 274
  2. ^Whitburn, Joel (2004). The Billboard Book Of Top 40 Country Hits: 1944-2006, Second edition. Record Research. p. 298.
  3. ^Whitburn, Joel (2002). Top Adult Contemporary: 1961-2001. Record Research. p. 207.
  4. ^Matt Bjorke (November 13, 2013). 'Country Chart News - The Top 30 Digital Singles - November 13, 2013: CMA Awards Drive Sales; Eric Church 'The Outsiders' #1; Taylor Swift 'Red' #3'. Roughstock. Archived from the original on April 21, 2014.
  5. ^'National Recording Registry Reaches 500'. Library of Congress. March 21, 2018. Retrieved March 21, 2018.
  6. ^'Australian Chart Book'. Austchartbook.com.au. Retrieved 2016-10-13.
  7. ^'Charts.nz – Kenny Rogers – The Gambler'. Top 40 Singles.
  8. ^Salaverri, Fernando (September 2005). Sólo éxitos: año a año, 1959–2002 (1st ed.). Spain: Fundación Autor-SGAE. ISBN84-8048-639-2.
  9. ^'KENNY ROGERS full Official Chart History Official Charts Company'. Theofficialcharts.com. Archived from the original on 2011-12-24. Retrieved 2016-10-13.
  10. ^'Kenny Rogers Chart History (Hot Country Songs)'. Billboard.
  11. ^'Kenny Rogers Chart History (Hot 100)'. Billboard.
  12. ^'Kenny Rogers Chart History (Adult Contemporary)'. Billboard.
  13. ^'Cash Box Top 100 3/10/79'. Tropicalglen.com. 1979-03-10. Archived from the original on 2016-03-18. Retrieved 2016-10-13.
  14. ^'Image : RPM Weekly - Library and Archives Canada'. Bac-lac.gc.ca. Retrieved 2016-10-13.
  15. ^'Top 100 Hits of 1979/Top 100 Songs of 1979'. Musicoutfitters.com. Retrieved 2016-10-13.
  16. ^'Cash Box YE Pop Singles - 1979'. Tropicalglen.com. 1979-12-29. Archived from the original on 2014-07-13. Retrieved 2016-10-13.
  17. ^'Best of the 70's & 80's'. WDDF Radio. Retrieved 2016-10-13.

Fold Poker Definition

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